Friday, 18 December 2015

Coefficient of Determinations

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Scope of Operations Research

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Diagrammatic representation of data - Statistics

Diagrammatic representation of data.

          Bar Diagram
          Simple Bar diagram.
          Multiple Bar diagram.
          Component Bar diagram.(Subdivided)
          Percentage Bar diagram.
          Pie chart
          Pictogram
          Statistical maps or cartograms.


Thursday, 17 December 2015

Today In History. What Happened This Day In History

December 16
1431   Henry VI of England is crowned King of France.
1653   Oliver Cromwell takes on dictatorial powers with the title of "Lord Protector."
1773   To protest the tax on tea from England, a group of young Americans, disguised as Indians, throw chests of tea from British ships in Boston Harbor.
1835   A fire in New York City destroys property estimated to be worth $20,000,000. It lasts two days, ravages 17 blocks, and destroys 674 buildings including the Stock Exchange, Merchants’ Exchange, Post Office, and the South Dutch Church.
1863   Confederate General Joseph Johnston takes command of the Army of Tennessee.
1864   Union forces under General George H. Thomas win the battle at Nashville, smashing an entire Confederate army.
1930   In Spain, a general strike is called in support of the revolution.
1939   The National Women’s Party urges immediate congressional action on equal rights.
1940   British troops carry out an air raid on Italian Somalia.
1944   Germany mounts a major offensive in the Ardennes Forest in Belgium. As the center of the Allied line falls back, it creates a bulge, leading to the name–the Battle of the Bulge.
1949   Chinese Communist leader Mao Tse-tung is received at the Kremlin in Moscow.
1950   President Harry Truman declares a state of National Emergency as Chinese communists invade deeper into South Korea.
1976   President Jimmy Carter appoints Andrew Young as Ambassador to the United Nations.
1978   Cleveland becomes the first U.S. city to default since the depression.
1998   The United States launches a missile attack on Iraq for failing to comply with United Nations weapons inspectors.
2003   President George W. Bush signs the CAN-SPAM Act of 2003, which establishes the United States’ first national standards regarding email and gives the Federal Trade Commission authority to enforce the act.
Born on December 16
1485   Catherine of Aragon, first wife of Henry VIII, who bore him six children; only one, Mary I, survived to adulthood.
1770   Ludwig Van Beethoven, German composer best known for his 9th Symphony.
1775   Jane Austen, novelist (Sense and Sensibility, Pride and Prejudice).
1917   Arthur C. Clarke, English science fiction writer (2001: A Space Odyssey)
1932   Sir Quentin Saxby Blake, illustrator and children’s writer; received the Hans Christian Andersen Award (2002) and was Britain’s first Children’s Laureate (1999–2001).
1936   Morris Dees, activist; co-founder of the Southern Poverty Law Center.
1938   Liv Ullmann, Norwegian actress and director; won Golden Globe for Best Actress–Motion Picture Drama for The Emigrants (1971).
1943   Steven Bochco, TV producer and writer (Hill Street Blues, L.A. Law).
1949   Billy Gibbons, sinner, songwriter, musician with ZZ Top and Moving Sidewalks bands.
1955   Prince Lorenz of Belgium, Archduke of Austria-Este.
1962   William Perry, pro football defensive lineman nicknamed The Refrigerator because of his size.
1963   Benjamin Bratt, actor best known for his role of Rey Curtis on the Law & Order TV series.
1969   Adam Riess, astrophysicist; shared 2006 Shaw Prize in Astronomy and 2011 Nobel Prize in Physics for providing evidence the expansion of the universe is accelerating.

Monday, 14 December 2015

Inspirational video 1 - Real life Hero


CORRELATION - UNDERSTANDING AND CONCEPTS

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Introduction of Correlation Coefficient (CORRELATION)



Correlation 
Univariate analysis: Analysis of data when only one variable is involved.
Eg. Dispersion, Central tendency, Skewness, Kurtosis
Bivariate analysis: It is the analyses of data which involves two variables which have got realtionship exist between them. In biological experiment the bivariate analysis is very common where in one may like to know the strength of relationship or one may like to predict one variable from another related variable.
 These techniques help in measuring the independence or relationship between bivariate data and predict the data of one variable for the given value of the other variable.
Correlation Coefficient
Correlation analysis is helpfull in ascertaining the strength of relationship between the two variables. It measures the closeness of relationship between the two variables.
It ranges from -1 to +1 and it does not have any unit.
Francis Galton was the first person who investigated the correlation technique graphically. However Karl Pearson (1857-93) introduced a method of assessing correlation by means of the coefficient of correlation.
Eg: Milk production and the fat percentage feed intake and weight gain.
The statistical tool with the help of which the realtionship between the two variables studied is called correlation.
Correlation and causation
 High degree of correlation exists due to any one or a combination of the following reasons.
1.      By Chance: Due to small number of variables sometimes there may exist a correlation in a sample but the same does not exist in the population. It is due to chance factor in small sample.
2.      2. Influence of some external factors on two variables. A high degree of variables may be due to same causes affecting the each variable.
3.      Influence of two variables on each other or mutual influence.
4.      Influence of one variable upon the other -one of the variable is truly independent and therefore acts free from any external forces and influence the other variable which is truly dependent since it reacts in response to the independent variable.
Types of correlation:
1.      Positive or negative correlation.
2.      Simple partial or multiple correlations
3.       Linear or non linear correlations.
Positive or negative correlation.
It depends on the direction in which the variables are moving. When both the variables move in the same direction it is positive correlation and if they move in the opposite direction it is negative correlation.
Simple , Partial & Multiple correlation
Simple- Only two variables are involved.
Partial or multiple- Relationship of more than two variables.
Multiple correlation- The relationship between one independent variable and two or more independent variables are studied.
Eg. Feed intake _ Body weight, Milk yield.
Partial correlation: The study of two variables excluding some other variables is called partial correlation.
 Linear and non Linear correlations:
Correlation between two variables is said to be linear if corresponding to a unit change in one variable, there is a constant change in one variable, there is a constant change in the other variable over the entire range of values.
 X        30        60        90        120      150
 Y        10        20        30        40        50

The graph of these variables having such relationship will form a straight line.
The distinction between linear and non- linear correlation is based on the ratio of change between the variables under study.
X         1          2          3          4          5
Y         5          7          9          11        13
Thus for a unit change in X there is a constant change of 2 in Y.
Y = 2X + 3
The two variables X and Y are linearly related, if there exist a relationship
Y = a + bx
That is if the two values are plotted on a graph one should get a straight line.
If there is no constant change in ‘Y’ for every unit change in ‘a’ then it is termed as non linear  or curvilinear.
Non linear – eg. If we double the protein content in the feed milk, production will not be doubled. The graph of non- linear realtionship will form a curve. It is also called                     “curivilinear relationship”.
The mutual relationship could depend on
1.      Mutual dependence- supply and demand
2.      Both are influenced by same external factors – Effect of weather on rice and potato yield.
3.      Pure chance- size of shoe and degree of intelligence- known as spurious or non sense correlation.
Methods of studying correlation
I.                   Scatter diagram method: By plotting the two variables on the graph sheet the relationship can be understood. If the points are too much scattered it indicates less or no relationship. If it is condensed then it indicates some relationship between the two variables.


Depending upon the distribution in the scatter plot
1.      High degree of  positive correlation
2.      High degree of negative correlation
3.      Low degree of negative correlation
4.      Low degree of positive correlation
This method does not get affected by extreme values and give fair degree of relationship. However, in large sample it is not suitable. It does not provide exact measure of the
Merits and Demerits of scatter diagram
Merits:
1.Simple
2. We can have a rough idea about the realtionship whteher it is +ve or –ve.
3. Not influenced by extreme item.
Demerits
It cannot give exact degree of correlation

II.                Graphical method The two individual values of the two variables are plotted on a graph paper. We thus get two curves one for X and another for Y. These two curves form the basis of comparison.
                        Jan       Feb     Mar      Apr      May
VariableI         12        16        12        14        18
Variable II       18        14        18        16        13

Both these are about visualizing relationship.
III.             Coefficient of correlation _ Measuring the relationship.
Karl Pearson developed the method
 It is also called Pearsonian Coefficient of correlation


Applications of Operations Research - Notes



Scope of Operations Research
            Any problem, simple or complicated, can use OR techniques to find the best possible solution. This section will explain the scope of OR by seeing its application in various fields of everyday life.
In Defense Operations:
            In modern warfare, the defense operations are carried out by three major independent components namely Air Force, Army and Navy. The activities in each of these components can be further divided in four sub-components namely: administration, intelligence, operations and training and supply. The applications of modern warfare techniques in each of the components of military organisations requireexpertise knowledge in respective fields.
             Furthermore, each component works to drive maximum gains from its operations and there is always a possibility that the strategy beneficial to one component may be unfeasible for another component. Thus in defense operations, there is a requirement to co-ordinate the activities of various components, which gives maximum benefit to the organization as a whole, having maximum use of the individual components. A team of scientists from various disciplines come together to study the strategies of different components. After appropriate analysis of the various courses of actions, the team selects the best course of action, known as the µoptimum strategy.
In Industry:
The system of modern industries is so complex that the optimum point of operation in its various components cannot be intuitively judged by an individual. The business environment is always changing and any decision useful at one time may not be so good some time later. There is always a need to check the validity of decisions continuously against the situations. The industrial revolution with increased division of labor and introduction of management responsibilities has made each component an independent unit having their own goals. For example: production department minimizes the cost of production but maximizes output. Marketing department maximizes the output, but minimizes cost of unit sales. Finance department tries to optimize the capital investment and personnel department appoints good people at minimum cost. Thus each department plans its own objectives and all these objectives of various department or components come to conflict with one another and may not agree to the overall objectives of the organization. The application of OR techniques helps in overcoming this difficulty by integrating the diversified activities of various components to serve the interest of the organization as a whole efficiently. OR methods in industry can be applied in the fields of production, inventory controls and marketing, purchasing, transportation and competitive strategies.

Planning:
In modern times, it has become necessary for every government to have careful planning, for economic development of the country. OR techniques can be fruitfully applied to maximize the per capita income, with minimum sacrifice and time. A government can thus use OR for framing future economic and social policies.
Agriculture:
With increase in population, there is a need to increase agriculture output. But this cannot be done arbitrarily. There are several restrictions. Hence the need to determine a course of action serving the best under the given restrictions. You can solve this problem by applying OR techniques.

In Hospitals:
OR methods can solve waiting problems in out-patient department of big hospitals and administrative problems of the hospital organisations.vi)
In Transport:
You can apply different OR methods to regulate the arrival of trains and processing times minimize the passengers waiting time and reduce congestion, formulate suitable transportation policy, thereby reducing the costs and time of trans-shipment.
Research and Development:
You can apply OR methodologies in the field of R&D for several purposes, such as to control and plan product introductions.

LINEAR PROGRAMMING PROBLEM(LPP) - Basic Idea with Practical Example